While the country's unemployment rate is falling, the quality of employment seems to have taken a hit. The pace of formalisation slowed in the five months of the current financial year (April-August) with more than half a million fewer formal jobs created in the period compared to the same period last year, according to data from the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO). The payroll data showed that cumulatively 4.92 million new subscribers joined the social security organisation between April-August this year, compared to 5.51 million subscribers in the same period in the previous year, reflecting a 10.7 per cent decline in the number of new payrolls created.
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Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday announced income tax relief for the middle class, a Rs 2 lakh crore outlay for job creation schemes over the next five years and a spending splurge for states run by her party's new coalition partners as she unveiled the Modi 3.0 government's first budget after the general elections.
'The economic impact of this lockdown is evidently huge.' 'Its impact on the livelihood of vulnerable sections of the society is immeasurably bigger,' observes Mahesh Vyas.
'The finance minister has done as much as she can when you look into the fiscal constraints she had.'
'The noise that we are hearing is because the five big IT players are not hiring significantly.'
'When women act assertively, express anger or vocalise their accomplishments -- examples of characteristics that are seen among leaders in most organisations -- they often receive pushback because these behaviours do not align with traditionally feminine attributes.'
'According to CMIE data, employment in manufacturing saw a reduction from 51 million in the country in 2016 to 27 million in 2021. 'That is, it has halved in just 5 years. 'At the same time, the national lockdown resulted in reverse migration to rural areas, and an increase in the number of workers in agriculture. 'It also means joblessness has increased in agriculture because there are too many workers; the number of workers went up from 200 million to 232 million.'
Owaisi criticized the court-ordered survey of a Mughal-era mosque in Sambhal, Uttar Pradesh, saying it weakens India and distracts from real issues like inflation and unemployment.
The week ended October 17 was remarkable as it saw a fall in the unemployment rate. We have not seen such a level in any monthly estimate of the employment rate since March 2020, Mahesh Vyas points out.
'it's not just youth in India who are left behind because of their inability to find jobs; nearly two-thirds of Indian women of working ages do not participate at all in the paid labour force.'
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Youth unemployment (ages 15 to 29) is higher than the national average of 12.4 per cent in Telangana (14.2 per cent) and Rajasthan (13 per cent), followed by Chhattisgarh (6.7 per cent) and MP (6 per cent).
'Just see what kind of political, social and economic impact it will have when the number of unemployed goes up four times in one year suddenly.'
'The policy focus of the government should have been on creating more good quality jobs but that was not their focus.'
'We face the risk of remaining a low-income country for a very long time unless something changes in the next few years.' 'Instead of constantly talking about becoming a developed economy, we need to start fixing the problems of the economy one by one.' 'There is so much potential, and we are squandering away the opportunity.'
Showing total disregard for the US constitution, Trump has said that this could be the last election to be held in the country. A Trump presidency could lead to mass deportation of undocumented migrants and harsh family separation, warns Aseem Chhabra.
Trends in the global markets, trading activity of foreign investors and announcement of domestic macroeconomic data are the major factors that would drive investors' sentiment in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Benchmark indices had a record-breaking rally in the past week driven by impressive GDP data. Equity markets would remain closed on Friday for Mahashivratri.
Fresh formal job creation declined sequentially for a third straight month in February to fall to a 21-month low, signaling pressure in the employment market. These are the findings from the latest payroll data released by the Employee Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) on Thursday. The number of new monthly subscribers under the Employees' Provident Fund (EPF) declined 10 per cent sequentially to 738,052 in February from 819,659 in January.
'India has the maths talent, academic institutions, and research institutions to do the next big thing.'
Kharge's remarks came after Modi on Friday said the Congress stands "badly exposed" in front of people for promising to them what the party knows it will never be able to deliver.
Internet shutdowns by law enforcement agencies like the one in Manipur and Punjab cost $1.9 billion to the Indian economy in the first half of 2023, a report said on Thursday. The shutdowns also led to a loss of nearly $118 million in foreign investment and triggered over 21,000 job losses, the global non-profit Internet Society said in its report 'Netloss'. The non-profit arrived at the financial impact of the shutdown going beyond the loss of output and included factors like change in the unemployment rate, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) lost, risks of future shutdowns, population in the working age etc.
What the labour market statistics of March 2022 show is India's biggest sign of economic distress, points out Mahesh Vyas.
The state's joblessness is three times higher than the national average of 7.8 per cent.
Global brokerage firm CLSA has reversed its early tactical shift from Indian equities to Chinese stocks, and has decided to raise India allocation while cutting exposure to China. In its report titled 'Pouncing Tiger, Prevaricating Dragon', CLSA cited challenges facing Chinese markets in the aftermath of Donald Trump's victory in the US elections as the reason for the move. "Misfortune can happen in threes. So it has played out for Chinese equities over the past week.
Users of employment / unemployment statistics can enjoy the benefits of -- initially the speed of private enterprise and then, the stamp of official statistics with a hopefully small time lag, says Mahesh Vyas.
The US Fed also said that the unemployment rate too would rise to 5.7 per cent.
The unemployment rate in the OECD region a grouping of 27 developed and developing nations stood at 8.8 per cent in November 2009, amid the global labour market slowly witnessing signs of stabilisation.
Poor quality of education is one of the most important reasons for high unemployment in India, says Kavita Nigam.
The employment that is returning is mostly essential services required by Indian households. Most urban Indian households cannot function without a retinue of maids, cooks, drivers, cleaners, notes Mahesh Vyas.
The monthly Rs 2500 payment for poor women is expected to cost Rs 11,000 crore while the pension scheme of Rs 2000 for every senior citizen will cost around Rs 4100 crore. The Yamuna clean up will cost over Rs 10,000 crore while a similar amount is required to upgrade Delhi's hospitals. Ultimately, the new BJP government will have no choice but to ask the centre for financial support, notes Rashme Sehgal.
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, global cues, macroeconomic data announcements and the ongoing quarterly earnings are the major triggers that will dictate trends in stock markets this week, analysts said. Besides, the trading activity of foreign investors and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be tracked. "All eyes are on the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for November 1, particularly due to the multi-year high levels of the US bond yields.
The finance ministry expects a broad-based moderation in inflationary pressures on the back of an anticipated reduction in food prices as a result of the uptick in summer sowing. The retail inflation rate remained stubbornly clung to the 5 per cent mark in seven of the past eight months. "Core inflation is trending downwards, indicating a broad-based moderation in price pressures... Driven by strong domestic growth and benign global commodity prices, core inflation is declining continuously.
Divya Nair/Rediff.com speaks to students and experts to find out whether it is better to study management in India or try for an international MBA.
In the jobs created in 2022, the share of those in the age group 18-25 increased to at least a five-year high of 56 per cent. A Business Standard analysis of the monthly Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) payroll data shows in 2018 the share of youths among the new EPFO subscribers was 50.9 per cent. The National Statistical Office is releasing the monthly EPFO payroll data since April 2018 as part of the government's effort to track formal-sector employment by using payrolls as an instrument.
Over 10 million Indians have lost their jobs because of the second wave of COVID-19, and around 97 per cent of households' incomes have declined since the beginning of the pandemic last year, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) chief executive Mahesh Vyas said on Monday. The unemployment rate measured by the think-tank is expected to come at 12 per cent at the end of May as against 8 per cent in April, Vyas told PTI, adding this signifies that about 10 million or 1 crore Indians have lost jobs in this period. Stating that the main reason for the job losses is "mainly the second wave" of COVID-19 infections, Vyas said, "As the economy opens up, part of the problem will be solved but not entirely."
'They think quick fixes like internship in the private sector will help. 'In fact, internships have been going on for the last one decade.' 'In 2014-2015 itself, we had a ministry of skill development. None of the programmes have yielded results, still they are continuing with such schemes under some other name.' 'We don't see any seriousness on the part of the government to attack the problem of unemployment.'
The recovery seen in the increased economic activity till September or October is running out of steam. Labour statistics indicate a substantial slowing down of the economy in November, notes Mahesh Vyas.
India has the best hiring outlook globally, second only to Brazil, with 54 per cent of companies surveyed planning to hire in the December quarter as against 51 per cent in the September quarter, according to a report by global staffing firm ManpowerGroup. The report titled "ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey" showed that India has the strongest net employment outlook for the December quarter in the Asia-Pacific region, followed by China (46 per cent), and Australia (38 per cent). The global net employment outlook in the December quarter would stand at 30 per cent, down by three percentage points from the June-September quarter, yet six percentage points higher than the same period last year, the staffing firm said.
'It feels like Assam is good just as a tourist spot and not a place to earn and live.'
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